Figure 4: Synthesised changes for a 100-year Tx5x event due to GMST for the preindustrial period. Changes in PR (left) and intensity (right) are shown for a historical period comparing the past 1.3°C cooler climate with the present, including observations (blue) and climate models ranked ‘good’ (red). If an infinite upper bound has been replaced by a number a ‘*’ has been added to the model name, and if the best estimate has also been replaced then ‘**’ has been added (see Otto et al., 2024).