Figure 3: Left: Return time plots for the climate of 2026 (red) and a climate with GMST 1.3ºC cooler (blue), from fitting a non-stationary GEV that shifts with GMST to the time series April maxima of Tx15day from CPC. The past observations are shown twice: once shifted up to the current climate and once shifted down to the climate of the pre-industrial era. The markers show the data and the lines show the fits and uncertainty from the bootstrap. The magenta line shows the magnitude of the 2025 event analysed here. Middle: same as (left) for MSWX. Right: same as (left) for IMD.