We have developed resources that can be used to inform the debate and understanding of extreme weather event attribution. Many of the analyses have graphics developed by Climate Central. In addition to these we have written a large number of papers that you can find across the website.
World Weather Attribution papers
Black, M. T., D. J. Karoly.“Southern Australia’s Warmest October on Record: The Role of ENSO and Climate Change”. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, No. 12, December 2016: S118-S121
Haustein, K., F.E.L. Otto, P. Uhe, N. Schaller, M.R. Allen, L. Hermanson, M. Christidis, P. McLean, H.Cullen. Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs [ERL].
Karoly, D. J., M. T. Black, M. R. Grose, A. D. King. “The Roles of Climate Change and El Niño in the Record Low rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, Australia”. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, No. 12, December 2016: S127-S130
King, Andrew et al. “Barrier reef attribution study”. Arc Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. 2016.
King, A. D., G. J. van Oldenborgh, D. J. Karoly. “Climate Change and El Niño Increase Likelihood of Indonesian Heat and Drought”. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, No. 12, December 2016: S113-S117
, , , , , , , , , and (2016). Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10,980–10,988, doi: 10.1002/2016GL069965.
Oldenborgh, G. J. van, F. E. L. Otto, K. Haustein, K. AchutaRao. “The Heavy Precipitation Event of December 2015 in Chennai, India”. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, No. 12, December 2016: 587-591
Otto, F. E. L. “Extreme Events: The Art of Attribution” Nature Climate Change 6 (2016): 342-343. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2971
Otto, F. E. L., , J. Eden, P.A. Stott, D. J. Karoly, M.R. Allen. “The Attribution Question”. Nature Climate Change 6 (2016): 813 – 816. doi:10.1038/nclimate3089
Otto, F. E. L., C. A. S. Coelho, A. King, E. Coughlin de Perez, Y. Wada, G. J. van Oldenborgh, R. Haarsma, K. Hausten, P. Uhe, M. van Aalst, J. A. Aravequia, W. Almeida, H. Cullen. “Factors Other Than Climate Change, Main Drivers of 2014/15 Water Shortage in Southeast Brazil”. BAMS (2015): S1-S6. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00120.1
Sippel, S., F. E. L. Otto, M. Flach, G. J. van Oldenborgh. “The Role of Anthropogenic Warming in 2015 Central European Heat Waves”. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, No. 12, December 2016: 551-556
, , , , , , , and “Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences,” Geophys. Res. Lett.(2016): doi:
van der Wiel, K., Kapnick, S. B., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Whan, K., Philip, S., Vecchi, G. A., Singh, R. K., Arrighi, J., and Cullen, H.: Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 897-921, doi:10.5194/hess-21-897-2017, 2017.
van Oldenborgh, G. J., F. E. L. Otto, K. Haustein, H. Cullen. “Climate Change increases the probability of heavy rains like those of storm Desmond in the UK- an event attribution study in near- real time” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Discuss. 12, 13197-13216, 2015. doi:10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015
van Oldenborgh, G. J., S. Philip, E. Aalbers, R. Vautard, F. Otto, K. Haustein, F. Habets, R. Singh, H. Cullen. “Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Discuss. 2016. doi:10.5194/hess-2016-308
Wehner, M., D. Stone, H. Krishnan, K. AchutaRao, F. Castillo. “The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity in India and Pakistan in Summer 2015”. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, No. 12, December 2016: 581-586